“We can plunge Lebanon completely into the dark and take apart Hezbollah’s power in days,” former Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz stated. It was just the fresh threat from a prominent Israeli public figure against Lebanon and Hezbollah as tensions flared. It won’t be challenging for Israel to plunge Lebanon into darkness. The country’s energy grid, already disabled by decades of mismanagement and the country’s economic failure, barely functions as it is. A few well-aimed airstrikes will easily conclude it off.
Taking apart Hezbollah’s military capacity in days, however, is a far taller assignment. Since its inconclusive 2006 war with the Lebanese militant party, Israel has been preparing for a re-match. Hezbollah too has long been readying for war. Its arsenal includes, according to Israeli assessments, at least 150,000 missiles and rockets. Israel calculates the group has already fired 5,000 since October, which suggests, as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated in a speech last week, that much of its arsenal remains unchanged.
CNN has noted that Israeli officials have been amazed by the sophistication of the militant group’s attacks. These include routine pinpoint strikes on Israel’s collection of surveillance outposts along the border, firing down high-flying top-of-the-line Israeli drones, and strikes on Israel’s Iron Dome batteries and anti-drone defences. Perhaps the biggest shock for Israel, however, was the nine minutes of drone footage Hezbollah broadcasted online of highly exposed civilian and military infrastructure in and around the northern city of Haifa.
In addition to its ammunition, Hezbollah can probably field between 40,000 and 50,000 soldiers– Nasrallah recently stated more than 100,000. Many of these gained battle experience fighting alongside regime parties in the Syrian civil war. As a fighting force, Hezbollah is highly qualified and disciplined, unlike many other guerrilla companies. During the 2006 war, in the experience of this correspondent, it was infrequent to encounter Hezbollah fighters. One day we came upon several of them in the obliteration of a southern Lebanese village. They were courteous but firm, devoid of bragging bluster and swagger, insisting we leave directly for our safety. They wouldn’t take no for an answer.
Unlike Gaza, Lebanon is not framed by hostile neighbours. It has strategic depth, with warm regimes in Syria and Iraq, permitting direct access to Iran. Over the years Israel has regularly hit targets in Syria it believed were involved in trans-shipment of spears to Hezbollah, but all movements are those strikes have been only partially successful. In the event of war, full-scale war, both flanks will be able to inflict significant pain on the other.
