The Turkish Surge: Impacting Africa’s Geopolitics

Turkey’s increasing presence in Africa is undeniable, and it’s by design. With its sights on expanding influence, Turkey has significantly improved its engagement on the continent in recent years.

Turkish trade is roaring, as its exports to Africa have nearly doubled in less than a decade. The number of Turkish embassies on the mainland has risen from 12 in 2005 to 44 today. Geopolitical Intelligence Services’ African affairs expert Teresa Nogueira Pinto expresses Turkey’s multifaceted investments are paying off, particularly in the security sector.

“Already an influential presence in North Africa and the Horn of Africa, Ankara has concluded defense contracts with countries in West and East Africa, including Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Rwanda,” she noted in an April 9 report. “Although the specifics of the arrangements vary — ranging from security provisions and technical backing to military training — they most often include provisions around arm sales.”

This year, the Turkish government is anticipated to approve a military agreement to train the Ugandan army and special forces as well as a contract with Mozambique to share military intelligence. Turkey’s most important partner in Africa is Somalia, where it launched its largest foreign military base in the capital, Mogadishu, in 2017. For years, Turkey has supplied military training for Somali troops, who are locked in battle with the terrorist group al-Shabaab, an affiliate of al-Qaida.

Ethiopia’s port-access agreement with the breakaway Somaliland region motivated Somalia to broaden its defense cooperation with Turkey in February, and the Turkish warship Kinaliada F514 anchored at the Port of Mogadishu on April 23, transmitting a clear message. “Somalia’s safety is also Turkey’s security,” Turkish Ambassador Alper Aktas expressed in a ceremony that day. “We have never considered Somalia’s stability separately from our own country’s stability.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made a concerted measure to boost his country’s status as a global force. In Africa, Turkey casts itself as an choice to Russia and China. Erdogan has gone so far as direct to Turkey as an “Afro-Eurasian” country.

“Erdogan’s administration is very keen to use the opportunities Turkey’s position gives, so Turkey automatically is a contender to be a mediator country,” Professor of International Relations Ahmet Kasim Han, of Beykoz University, informed the BBC. “China and Russia contest over geopolitical influence in the region. The Turkish government considers its presence in Africa would help strengthen the country’s influence in world politics.”

Some of Turkey’s incursions into Africa have, however, drawn criticism. In 2020, the Turkish military intervened in backing of the United Nations-recognized government of Libya and supported push the Libyan National Army out of the capital, Tripoli. Some saw Turkey’s actions as a means to ensure access to resources and maritime borders in the Mediterranean Sea region and counter the effect of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Turkish drones have evolved an increasingly popular weapon in African conflicts, highlighted by Turkey’s 27% growth in global defense and aerospace exports in 2023, reaching a record high of $5.5 billion.

For African nations, Turkish defense products have many upsides. They are affordable and technically trustworthy, having been tested in Libya, Syria and, more recently, Ukraine. For countries facing revolutionary movements, with under-resourced armies and permeable borders, like Togo, Niger, Nigeria or Somalia, Turkey’s drones and counterterrorism expertise are extremely valuable.

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