Tensions are rising once more between age-old adversaries Ethiopia and Eritrea over Addis Ababa’s push for access to the sea, raising spectres of another war in the Horn of Africa barely seven years after the two neighbors resumed relations. 

Young people have been requested to volunteer to join the army by Eritrea in recent months, while troops have reportedly been sent to shared border areas by Ethiopia. Experts say such steps could very well lead the two armies to face in a war. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in his statements, discounted war with Eritrea in order to gain access to the Red Sea. Abiy, who has also said that accessing the Red Sea was “an existential issue”, emphasized that his nation wanted to do it “peacefully through dialogue”.

Eritrea, however, has adopted a firmer stance, labeling Ethiopia as “misguided” regarding the border issue tensions. 

What are the indicators of tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea?

There has been a build-up of tensions in recent months. In September, the national carrier of Ethiopia, Ethiopian Airlines, was compelled to stop flights to Eritrea after receiving a notice of ban by Asmara and having its bank accounts in the country frozen. No explanations for the ban were provided by the airline officials.

Later in February, a rights organization based in Eritrea, Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE) reported that the government was directing citizens under 60 to issue military mobilization orders and was mobilizing reservists. According to the organization, the releases were representative of forced conscription policies within the authoritarian regime country.

This spontaneous and unparalleled mobilization has caused shockwaves across Eritrean society, as it was presumed that the war might be with neighboring Ethiopia,” HRCE remarked in its report.

“We urge the United Nations, African Union, and all governments concerned to step in and pressure both the Eritrean and Ethiopian governments to stop these moves, uphold the rights of their people, and withdraw from any move towards war.”

In a similar vein, per reporting by the Reuters news agency, Ethiopia had sent troops and tanks to its northern borders with Eritrea in early March. There were no reasons cited by officials for the deployment there.

What is currently occurring in the Tigray region, and how does it connect to the ongoing tensions?

Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in the north has also cautioned of increasing tensions among the neighboring countries. Political conflicts in Tigray have polarized the government there, with one faction being reported to have allied with Eritrea.

The semiautonomous region of Tigray was at the epicenter of a 2020-2022 civil war, and one that had created a humanitarian tragedy with hundreds of thousands killed, and roughly three million displaced internally. It was created by the attempt by the government of Ethiopia to crush a rebellion against it by the Tigrayan government party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Addis Ababa accused the TPLF of trying to monopolize national federal politics in the nation, while the TPLF perceived the central government as overconcentrating power.

Eritrean forces worked with Ethiopian forces in the Tigray war, and both parties were accused of atrocious human rights violations. When a peace agreement – the Pretoria Peace Agreement – was signed in November 2022 between the federal Ethiopian government and the regional state government of rebels, however, Eritrea was not on the negotiating table. Officials in Eritrea, according to some observers, were made to feel affronted by the move, and that the gesture created a wedge between the two governments.

Why did the TPLF split into factions?

The tenuous peace established in Tigray subsequently unraveled as an interim TPLF government was put in place following the conflict divided into two camps this year.

A dissident faction blames the acting TPLF government under the leadership of Getachew Reda for not implementing the agreement of the peace deal, i.e., relocating displaced people to their previous residences, and for “betraying” Tigrayan interests by virtue of its unity with the federal authorities. In the most recent offensives last week, the breakaway group, led by TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, captured the large Tigrayan towns of Adigrat and Adi-Gudem amid reported civilian displacements and wounds. The movement is also reportedly occupied the major radio station in Mekelle, the regional capital.

The breakaway group is also alleged to be working with Eritrea, though the Asmara government claims no connection with dissident members of the TPLF. In a statement, the interim TPLF government called on the federal government in Addis Ababa, stating “the region may be on the verge of another crisis.”.

General Tsadkan Gebretensae, vice president in Ethiopia’s interim Tigray region administration, himself contributing recently in the Africa Report, an African interest magazine, had similar things on his mind. “At any minute, there might be a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia,” he said.

Why are Eritrean-Ethiopian relations historically tense?

Eritrea was an Italian colony until 1951, when it was occupied by the British and became an autonomous province of Ethiopia. In 1962, Ethiopia tried to annex Eritrea, but a rebel movement, led by Isaias Afwerki, resisted in an armed struggle and declared independence in 1993.

In 1998, war broke out over disputed border territory, resulting in a two-year conflict. It is estimated that 80,000 lost their lives, and the conflict split families apart across borders as all diplomatic links and interstate communication – transport, telephone, and postal networks – were cut. In 2000, a UN-brokered peace accord gave disputed territory to Eritrea, but the accord was never implemented.

As soon as Abiy became prime minister in 2018, he moved to solve the tensions and to regularize diplomatic relations with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who had been ruling since 1993. “We will destroy the wall and, in love, build a bridge between the two peoples,” Abiy had announced during his landmark visit to Asmara after years of war.

Shortly, there was a reconnection of communication lines, and families got reunited. Even flights were opened between the capitals of Addis Ababa and Asmara.

But analysts add that Eritrea, after being involved in the war in Tigray, was not pleased with being left out of the peace talks. The TPLF central leadership and Eritrea are still very bitter against each other, and some accounts indicate that Eritrean troops have not completely pulled out of some areas of Tigray, even though the war is over. There are suspicions that both nations may make Tigray a proxy battlefield.

Abiy’s aspirations to have direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia have also fueled the tensions. Addis Ababa lost access to the port after independence was declared by Eritrea. The Red Sea port of Djibouti has ever since been Ethiopia’s primary trading conduit, but it is expensive, around $1bn per year.

In recent years, Abiy has made that statement again that Ethiopia has a right to sea access, something that officials in Asmara interpret as a declaration of border conflict with Eritrea, which borders the Red Sea and took all of Ethiopia’s sea access with it when it became independent. Some believe Abiy is looking to the port of Assab, one of the two ports of Eritrea.

During a media briefing, Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh reprimanded Ethiopia for its rhetoric and rejected preparing for war.

“Eritrea is baffled by Ethiopia’s misguided and anachronistic ambitions of maritime access and naval base by means of diplomacy or coercion,”

Saleh stated. 

In what seemed to be retaliation and, if anything, taking sides, Eritrea entered a security pact with Somalia and Egypt last October. Ethiopia has also become at odds with Egypt over matters of mutual access to the Nile River.