Donald Trump ignored a pre-inaugural gift from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This timing was as important as the “comprehensive partnership agreement” between the Russians and Iranians. Pezeshkian and Putin signed the deal in Moscow three days before the US inauguration. As a result, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have formed a four-way connection, which the new US president is not yet recognising as a focus.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago caused Russia, Iran, and China to grow steadily closer since then. A short-range ballistic missile, as well as drones and drone technology, have been sent by Iran to Russia. CNN reported in December that a factory in Russia’s southern Tatarstan region developed Iranian-designed Shahed drones using Chinese components.
Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a partnership agreement in June 2024. Ten thousand troops were provided by Pyongyang to Moscow in November to oppose the Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region. Two North Korean soldiers were captured by Ukrainian forces earlier this month near the border. Afterwards, Putin signed a security agreement with Belarus, allowing Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the nation.
Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping expanded and enhanced the “no limits” partnership shortly before Russia plagued Ukraine in February 2022. Both European and US officials have failed to persuade Beijing to reduce its support for Russia, without which Moscow could not maintain its military campaign.
Although Trump has recently focused on regaining the Panama Canal, acquiring Greenland, and acquiring Canada as a fifty-first state, the way he addresses the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea collaboration will have a much more significant historical and geopolitical consequence.
In spite of this, the new Iran-Russia deal focuses as much on the weaknesses of each of the four partners as it does on their combined strengths, giving Trump the opportunity to disrupt their shared cause. It has been thirty years since Iran was this weak economically and militarily. It has decimated Hamas and Hezbollah, eroded its air defences, and failed to weaken Israel militarily with its unprecedented missile attacks last year. In contrast, Russia did not provide Iran with the mutual defence agreement that was part of its agreements with Belarus and North Korea.
How will Trump respond to this pre-inauguration gesture? Joe Biden’s weakness was excessive caution in managing the rising Russia-China threat alongside Iran and North Korea, but his diagnosis of the onset of autocratic collaboration was groundbreaking. While Trump may be more willing than Biden to enforce US interests, the world is looking forward to witnessing how he interprets the biggest global challenges.
