The blockage put in place by a minority of “America First” House members has been halted and, after a six-month delay, critical US military aid may be on its way to Ukraine again. An association of what might be termed Reaganite Republicans and Trumanesque Democrats—a coalition that allowed bring success in the Cold War and after—enacted a $60.8 billion aid package for Ukraine in a 311-112 vote on Saturday. Rapid endorsement by the Senate and signature by US President Joe Biden look likely to ensue in short order. The Biden administration seems poised to push ahead quickly by sending new weapons to Ukraine.
With enough shells, the Ukrainian military could blunt an anticipated Russian land offensive. With sufficient new air defence systems, the Ukrainians could determine the damage Russian strikes do to their infrastructure and cities. Employing long-range weapons, Ukraine could additionally degrade Russian bases, supply lines, and even its grip on Crimea. An intensified outpour of US weapons, including the longer-range Army Tactical Missile System which the bill presses for by name, could move battleground fortunes. With more and more useful weapons and fewer restrictions, Russian casualties and impairment could mount and resistance to the war, latent but evident inside Russia, could grow.
A surge of weapons to Ukraine requires to be escorted by an uptick in sanctions on Russia. The US- and European-led sanctions measure was effective in the first year of the full Russian invasion but must be intensified to seal loopholes and go after third countries and companies that help Russia avoid sanctions. The Group of Seven (G7) debate about utilising the roughly $300 billion of immobilized Russian sovereign investments held in Western financial institutions to support Ukraine has only crawled forward, at a pace not proportional with the stakes. The legal case for using those acquisitions to help Ukraine appears solid. The G7 Summit this coming June should be a juncture for action, not further discussion.
If the US and its allies rush ahead in military support for Ukraine and new economic coercion on Russia, by the time of the July NATO Summit in Washington Ukraine’s battleground fortunes could be more useful and Russia on the defensive militarily and economically. The Biden administration seems intent on using that summit to close in robust security support to Ukraine through a sequence of parallel agreements by European partners and the US, a sort of bridge to ultimate NATO membership, as government officials privately put it. The metaphor is capable: A credible bridge from Ukraine’s wartime practice to the long-term security of NATO membership—an ending state that NATO has already agreed on—would be a significant success and a marked setback for Putin.
The six-month pause in the assistance package caused by a committed isolationist minority in the House has cost Ukraine many lives and much harm. Numerous reports represent deteriorating military circumstances on the front lines and Russian practices for a major land offensive. The memory of the US dithering while Ukraine scorched, and the arguments of the America Firsters that signalled that Ukraine was insignificant and should be left to Russia, will linger.
The vote arrived through in the end. Governments around the world nevertheless may begin hedging against the next renewal of US isolationism and the next march of unreliability. Russia and China will manipulate the display of US political paralysis. Pro-Donald Trump authoritarians like Hungary’s Viktor Orban may claim, as did their predecessors during World War II, that democracy is concluded and the future belongs to them. To bypass the worst outcomes and capitalize on the good news of a successful vote, the Biden administration and European partners must lean forward on grants for Ukraine across the board.