U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Niger May Prompt Regional Force Realignment

The United States and Niger are persisting in negotiations for the withdrawal of roughly 1,000 U.S. troops located at two air bases in the Sahelian nation. After announcing at the end of April the intent to withdraw all military personnel, U.S. negotiators persist to work with Niger’s National Council for Safeguarding the Homeland (CNSP) to determine future bilateral security cooperation plans and activities.

On April 2024, U.S. Ambassador to Niger Kathleen FitzGibbon and Maj. Gen. Kenneth Ekman, Director of Strategy, Engagement and Programs for U.S. Africa Command, chaired with CNSP officials in Niamey to examine “an orderly and responsible withdrawal” of U.S. forces from Niger. This was followed by discussions the following week between Nigerien officials and Assistant Secretary of Defense Christopher Maier and Lt. Gen. Dag Anderson, the Director for Joint Force Development, of the U.S. Joint Staff.

Extremist violence in the Sahel continues to take a lethal toll as groups connected to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group (IS) extend their territory. Niger experienced the most effective surge in terrorism in 2023, with twice as many terrorism-connected fatalities as it had in 2022, according to the 2024 Global Terrorism Index (GTI), issued by the Institute for Economics and Peace.

In 2023, the number of terrorist raids in Niger raised to 61, up from 54 in 2022. But terrorism-related casualties more than doubled — 468 in 2023 compared to 193 in 2022 — in what the index named “a significant escalation in the lethality of attacks.” Nigerien military personnel have mourned the majority of terrorism-related deaths (73%), which is classified as the third-highest military death toll in the world in 2023, according to the GTI.

The premature request for U.S. troop pullback by the CNSP may lead the U.S. to readjust its security forces’ stance in the region to support African nations on the frontlines of the counter-terror fight. U.S. defence strategists have stated they want to take a fresh glance at their security partnership agreements in the region as part of an ongoing review, which they hope will yield better results for West African states with comprehensive counter-terrorism strategies. Several countries are now putting in place strategies that manage the root causes that lead to the spread of violent extremist organizations.

Côte d’Ivoire, for example, has funded $137.2 million to combat terrorism, including programs to prepare and train special counter-terrorism units and funding in education, health care, infrastructure and job-training agendas. The Ghana Armed Forces (GAF) has executed a military strategy to effectively deal with fierce extremist organizations (VEOs) through the adoption of non-kinetic strategies to build societal resilience and national cohesion. Ghana is a founding fellow of the Accra Initiative to maintain multilateral cooperation and intelligence sharing among West African nations.

Experts have long supported the combination of U.S. security contribution with African countries’ investments in root-cause mitigation agendas to prevent and defeat terrorism in the region.

In January 2024, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reported $45 million in new assistance to coastal West African nations to help the fight against extremism and insecurity. The U.S. has also undertaken the Global Fragility Act, a 10-year, whole-of-government action to support conflict prevention, stability and sustainable development in 10 countries globally that are confronting terrorism and other threats. Of the countries specified for partnerships, seven are in Africa: Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mozambique, Libya and Togo.

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