Conflicts in Tripoli, the capital of Libya, broke out fairly unexpectedly Monday night, highlighting the precarious security situation in the nation. Concerns about the stability of Libya’s capital and the wider ramifications for the remainder of the western area governed by the Government of National Unity (GNU) have once again been raised by the violence, which included heavy artillery and armed clashes between opposing factions.
Additionally, it coincided with the United Nations mission preparing to begin a fresh round of negotiations with the warring groups in the hopes that they would consent to elections later this year.
Which factors led to the latest clashes?
Notably, the violence was restricted to the Abu Salim neighborhood south of the city and a few neighborhoods west of it. The next day, everything seemed as if nothing had happened, and Tripoli was deemed safe by the interior ministry. Heavy gunfire around the city late Tuesday night broke the illusive calm, prompting the municipal council of Tripoli to proclaim the city a “war zone,” halting schools and asking residents to remain home while demanding peace.
The quiet that lasted from Monday morning until Tuesday evening seems to be aided by the passing of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, the head of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Former Prime Minister Fyez Sarraj first appointed Mr. Al-Kikli, better known as Gheniwa, to lead SSA in January 2021. Even though Gheniwa had a criminal history and a bad reputation, he persevered and occasionally seemed invincible, let alone shot dead.
The ecstatic Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah’s announcement of what amounted to an open war against all militias in the capital, including the Special Deterrence Force known as (Radaa), which is more organized, disciplined, and reputable than the SSA, could have put an end to everything and brought peace back to the beleaguered city. At this pivotal moment, Tripoli might see much more suffering and devastation than it has in the past, especially during the conflicts of 2011, 2014, and 2020.
The regular power struggle between armed organizations that have legitimacy from the government, which not only acknowledges them as legitimate entities but also finances them, is the main cause of the most recent conflict. Given that Libya is still split, the broader situation there also plays a role. General Khalifa Haftar rules the eastern and southern areas, while Benghazi is home to a second parallel administration that is supported by the parliament in Tobruk and operates under his protection. The presidential council and the high council of state, both of which are based in the capital, do not get along with the GNU in Tripoli.
Adjusting the roles of important participants
As things stand, the status quo in larger Libya is not anticipated to shift significantly. Given what is happening in Tripoli, the nation will continue to be governed by two distinct administrations, both of which are closely monitoring one another. Although they are not yet complete, the GNU and Al-Dbeibah are not as strong as they were a few days ago. GNU’s choice to pull back for the edge was more than just a face-saving move.
As long as the armed groups from Misrata, Al-Dbeibah’s hometown, remain in Tripoli, which most city people dislike, the situation in the capital will remain difficult and may easily worsen at any time. Similarly, Haftar has supporters in western Libya in places like Zawia, which is nearer Tripoli, and Zintan, which is in the mountainous area. If the situation worsens once again and those parties find a chance to drive GNU out of Tripoli, they probably won’t think twice.
Raada soldiers may now unwind and carry on with their regular operations in Tripoli, keeping control of vital areas like the city’s sole operational airport, now that they are aware of what is in store for them. However, they are expected to depart from the regions west and south of Tripoli as part of the truce, the specifics of which have not yet been made public.
