Credit: Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

Will the Gaza ceasefire survive its phased approach?

A hold-up in executing the Gaza ceasefire agreement is not a good sign for an agreement that many worry could collapse as it moves through its three phases. While it is evident that all talks to end conflicts depend on careful trust building and are highly helpless to spoilers, the deal to conclude 15 months of war in Gaza that followed Hamas’s raid on 7 October 2023 is more clearly problematic than most.

Critics and observers have noted that the design of the contract, created over three phases that demand new negotiations to take place as the truce goes forward, seems structured to invite numerous crises as it bounds towards ever more challenging terrain.

Considering the public statements of senior Israeli figures, Hamas is concerned Israel will aim to return the most vulnerable hostages, women, children and the ill and elderly, and then start quarrelling again, maybe at the time of the second phase. 

Israel seems no more certain of Hamas’s readiness to keep to the deal, already declaring it has abandoned its promises several times since the agreement was signed last week, including on the morning the agreement came into effect. While the deal should endure any endangered collapse of Netanyahu’s administration, the resignation of Netanyahu by the far-right Jewish Power could trigger a potential Israeli crisis that would be consequential.

For Netanyahu, the situation, in the end, has always been about optics and their effect on his political viability. Having pledged an unrealistic “total victory” over Hamas, what has come to hand is what many expected at the very start of the war: Hamas in Gaza, while destroyed, has thus far prevailed. 

Trump’s inauguration by declaring the contract as his diplomatic success he now becomes the agreement’s direct guarantor despite it being distant from apparent what he considers the endgame is or what influence he might be ready to apply. The question of what Trump wants may mitigate some of the risks against a more pessimistic outlook.

There is a reluctance on the part of Netanyahu to advance to the second phase. The administration of Donald Trump and Israeli public opinion are the two main factors that will push for the full enactment of the deal. After the first hostages return and gather enough strength to disclose the horrors they experienced in captivity, Israelis will likely be even more convinced that they must rescue those still in the tunnels.

There will be a lot of difficulty involved. There is a very low likelihood that it will move beyond phase one and into a permanent state of peace. There are many opportunities for spoilers on both sides, and serious clashes remain about the agreement’s next steps. In Israel, many people would like to see this war prosecuted indefinitely.

There are many opportunities for spoiler violence on the Palestinian side by hardliners, militant factions sore with the way things are going, as well as people who simply want revenge for the horrible things they’ve been subjected to. The deal is a fragile truce, so it must be emphasised There has been no cessation of the conflict. It will require continued monitoring and accountability from the negotiating parties.

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