The Maghreb region’s cold war between Algeria and Morocco persists to add new layers of frost. The latest round of pushes began in early March 2024 with the commencement of an office in Algiers for the Moroccan Republic of the Rif, a separatist organization reportedly supported by Algeria.
It has been suggested that it was a response to Morocco’s stated backing for the independence of the Kabyle people in Algeria, which itself was in reaction to Algeria’s hosting and funding of the separatist Sahrawi people of Western Sahara. The region is facing a new level of escalation in Algeria-Morocco relations.
Tensions between the North African neighbours have steamed for decades but seemed to bubble over in recent years. Algeria severed diplomatic connection with Morocco in 2021 for what its foreign minister called a string of “hostile actions.” In 2023, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune expressed deteriorating relations between the countries had reached “the point of no return.”
The primary problem between the two countries is their staunchly fighting positions on the Western Sahara dispute. Morocco declared the territory as part of a 1975 agreement with Spain, while Algeria has sponsored the Sahrawi rebel group, the Polisario Front, in seeking independence. While the Western Sahara conflict has been a festering tug-of-war between Algeria and Morocco for decades, the unique proxies are two separatist factions of the Amazigh ethnic status— the Kabyle and Rifian peoples — who are indigenous to North Africa.
Ferhat Mehenni, president of the provisional government of Kabylie, expressed Algeria’s support for the Sahrawi people is counterfeit. “Algeria does not believe at all in the right of peoples to self-determination,” he said. “If it were otherwise, it would have recognized it first for Kabylie and the Kabyle people. This principle is used by Algeria to destabilize the countries with which it competes, nothing more and nothing less.”
Former Algerian diplomat Mohamed Larbi Zitout expressed Algeria’s support for the establishment of the Rif Republic headquarters in its capital was reckless. “The separatist card is harmful to both countries and is more like a destructive bomb,” he told news website Arabi21.
Experts believe the potential for military confrontation between Morocco and Algeria is unlikely, but the two neighbours have challenging militaries. In 2022, the two countries were liable for 74% of all defence spending in North Africa, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Algeria disbursed $9.1 billion, while Morocco spent $5 billion.
In 2024, Algeria and Morocco have the two best-funded armies on the continent, with budgets of $21.6 billion and $12.1 billion, respectively, according to Global Firepower’s annual list. Like many critics in the region, some expressed concern that the military fanfare could spark a greater conflict.
According to Amrs Expert, at a time when there are very hostile signs, such as the mini-arms race between the two countries, some forces within the individual regimes could think about using military force, even in a narrow way, to move the issue forward.
To some extent relations are frosty, and the possibilities for war remain cold. The likely outcome of the arms race and sabre intimidating by both nations will be continued tension without an actual outbreak, spikes in incendiary rhetoric and symbolism, but a war that is continuously approaching but never actually arriving.