Ukraine can operate British-supplied weapons to hit targets inside Russia, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron commented during a May 2 visit to Kyiv. “Ukraine has that right,” Cameron reported Reuters. “Just as Russia is hitting inside Ukraine, you can quite comprehend why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it’s defending itself.”
The UK Foreign Secretary’s comments convey a departure from the cautious position adopted by most of Ukraine’s Western supporters over the past two years. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion started in February 2022, the majority of nations backing Ukraine have demanded that Western weapons can only be employed within Ukraine’s international boundaries and must not be deployed against targets inside the Russian Federation.
These restrictions mirror widespread concerns in Western capitals over a likely escalation of the current war into a distant broader European conflict. Moscow has skillfully manipulated the West’s fear of escalation, with Kremlin officials regularly alerting of Russian red lines and Vladimir Putin making regular thinly veiled nuclear threats.
So far, Russia’s pressure tactics have proved highly useful. By threatening to escalate the war, Moscow has been capable of slowing down the flow of military assistance to Ukraine, while also deterring the delivery of specific weapons categories and determining Kyiv’s ability to strike back against otherwise fair targets inside Russia.
This has positioned Ukraine at a significant military weakness. Already massively outgunned and outnumbered by its much bigger and wealthier Russian adversary, Ukraine has had to protect itself without the power to deploy Western weapons against Russia’s military infrastructure. Detractors of this approach claim the West is effectively pushing Ukraine to fight against a far bigger opponent with one hand tied behind its back
With the presence of their country under threat, Ukrainians have bristled at Western limitations and are using their own narrow range of weapons to strike back. These episodes include a recent movement of long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries that have damaged the Russian energy sector and divided sentiment among Ukraine’s partners. While US officials have voiced their displeasure and urged Kyiv to concentrate on military targets, France has indicated its support.
The situation concerning the use of Western weapons on Russian territory has been additionally complicated by the Kremlin’s territorial assertions inside Ukraine. In September 2022, Moscow expressed the “annexation” of four Ukrainian regions and officially included them in the Russian Constitution. Fighting has persisted in all four of these partially occupied Ukrainian provinces, with the Ukrainian military complementary to deploy Western weapons despite the Kremlin’s assertion that these regions are now part of Russia.
In difference to the caution displayed by Western leaders, Ukraine has frequently called Putin’s bluff and exposed the void of Russia’s nuclear blackmail. Weeks after the Kremlin dictator ceremoniously declared the entry of Kherson into the Russian Federation, Ukrainian troops cleared the city. Rather than punishing by deploying the might of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, Putin simply tolerated this humiliating defeat and removed his beleaguered army across the Dnipro River.
The Kremlin’s response to mounting Ukrainian aggression on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula has been likewise underwhelming. Since first occupying Crimea in 2014, Putin has described the peninsula in almost magical terms as a symbol of Russia’s return to Great Power status. However, when Ukraine employed a combination of locally developed naval drones and Western-supplied cruise missiles to plunge or damage around one-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Putin calmly ordered the bulk of his remaining warships to withdraw from Crimea and head for Russian ports. Despite the important role played by Western pikes in this Ukrainian success, there has been no indication of any escalation from Russia.
Removing constraints on attacks inside Russia would encourage Ukraine to disrupt preparations for the forthcoming offensive. It would also limit Russia’s power to bomb Ukrainian cities and eliminate the country’s civilian infrastructure with immunity. This will not be sufficient to transform the approach of the war, but it will go some method to evening out the odds.
By offering Kyiv the green light to operate Western weapons in Russia, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has shown an important new precedent. This is in numerous ways fitting. After all, Britain has invariably set the tone for international support since the eve of the Russian invasion, delivering Ukrainians with anti-tank weapons, tanks, and cruise projectiles in advance of other partners. Ukrainians will now be expecting the country’s other partners to follow suit soon.
