The premature death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19 has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the country’s political fate, especially concerning the sequence of the Supreme Leader. However, Iran’s ingrained balance of power suggests that there will be no direct seismic economic or foreign policy shifts anytime soon.
Iran’s sanctions-battered economy is positioned to continue struggling, and tensions with Israel and the West are likely to continue. Yet, the international response to Raisi’s death highlights a significant thawing in ties with the Persian Gulf states, including previously long-time competitors like Saudi Arabia. Iranian state media verified that President Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and six others died when their helicopter crashed near the Azerbaijan border. In response, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has announced five days of mourning and the closure of the country’s economy.
Raisi, elected in 2021 as a hardline nominee, had pledged to crack down on corruption, restore the JCPOA nuclear deal, and enhance regional relations. While the JCPOA nearly witne ssed a revival in 2022 under Amir-Abdollahian’s watch before mass demonstrations erupted, Raisi’s tenure did witness the resumption of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, transports to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the launch of regional schemes like the joint dam with Azerbaijan and membership to the exclusive BRICS+ club.
In the wake of the collision, Ali Bagheri Kani has been upgraded to Foreign Minister, stepping up from his previous position as deputy. First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will function as interim president until an election is held within the next 50 days. The Guardian Council, a body of clerics and lawyers, will select the candidates. The 2021 election faced criticism for barring hardliners and reformists, clearing the path for Raisi’s victory.
The larger question looming over Iran is who will follow Ayatollah Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Raisi was seen as a close partner and potential successor. His death moves the emphasis to other possible candidates, including the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, ex-President Hassan Rouhani, and Hassan Khomeini, the creator of the Islamic Republic’s grandchild.
Despite these internal changes, the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, National Assembly, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) wield considerable influence, diluting the president’s power. Consequently, Raisi’s death is unlikely to precipitate immediate policy changes. Economic challenges will continue, with Iran’s economy showing a modest increase primarily due to increased oil production. Nevertheless, continuing sanctions hardly restrict hard currency inflows, causing the rial to plunge and fuelling persistent double-digit inflation.
The potential for faster sanctions remains, particularly if Donald Trump were to rescue the US presidency and revive his hardline posture against Iran. Additionally, with significant economic resources owned by the IRGC, regional tensions, particularly with Israel, will persist to see the military prioritised over business interests. Geopolitically, Iran’s stance is anticipated to remain steadfast. Hopes for restoring nuclear deal negotiations have stalled, and while direct confrontation with Israel has recently de-escalated, Iran’s backing for its proxies like the Houthis continues unabated. This suggests ongoing regional instability, affecting non-Gulf economies such as Egypt.
Conversely, a new president might desire to sustain the momentum in improving ties with Gulf states, which have grown condolences after Raisi’s death. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, referring to Iran as a “sisterly regime,” accentuate the positive shift in regional dynamics. Enhanced relations between Iran and the Gulf lower the risk of broader conflict disrupting oil supplies from the region. In sum, while Raisi’s untimely death raises inquiries about Iran’s immediate political trajectory, there remains little prospect that while Khamenei remains at the top of the power structure, any substantial change in direction is on the horizon.
