On Tuesday, March 17, after talking for more than two hours, the US president, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, only agreed to confidence-building measures, not a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.

Following the call, the two leaders reached an agreement on a restricted prisoner exchange, a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, and the establishment of working groups to investigate further actions towards a ceasefire and, eventually, a peace agreement. This proposal received agreement from Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, during his conversation with the US president.

Russian leader stands firm on demands

It could be argued that a less charitable interpretation of the second call between the two presidents would be that the ball is now back in US court. Trump made clear by Putin that he was not in the mood to compromise. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, given recent events.

Ukraine has been mercilessly pressured by the US into accepting a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which Trump wished Russia would also agree to. Other than a vague statement about sanctions against Russia by Trump, he has yet to contemplate placing any significant equivalent pressure on Putin.

According to the situation on the ground, Russia has taken control in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have relinquished the majority of the territory they secured following a surprise offensive last summer. 

If Russia were to seize additional Ukrainian land, Putin would likely have an easier time persuading Trump that his demands are justified. Trump’s suggestion of “dividing assets”—including the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest prior to its shutdown in September 2022—raises concerns about the extent of Russian President Putin’s actions.

However, a deal between the US and Russia on its own won’t work. The clock is not only ticking for Putin but also for Zelensky’s.

According to the Russian readout, the two presidents discussed “the complete cessation of foreign military assistance, as well as providing intelligence information to Kyiv” as a crucial requirement for progress – a point Trump later refuted in a Fox interview. This implies that, for the time being, Kyiv will probably keep receiving US support aid.

EU leaders reaffirm military and financial support for Kyiv as US negotiations falter

On the other hand, Europe is also stepping up its support for Ukraine. While Trump and Putin were debating a carve-up of Ukraine over the call, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was clear about where the EU stands.

In a speech at the Royal Danish Military Academy, she reaffirmed her commitment to enhancing European “capabilities for credible deterrence” in response to threats, ahead of the release of the commission’s Readiness 2030 white paper focused on strengthening European defenses Russia.

A few hours later, the German parliament approved a multi-billion Euro plan that relaxed the country’s strict borrowing regulations to facilitate significant investments in defense. This comes in response to announcements of heightened defense spending across the continent, including from the UK, Poland, and the EU.

At the same time, the UK and France are spearheading initiatives to form a coalition of supportive nations for Ukraine. On March 15, representatives from the 30-member group convened in London for discussions. Following the meeting, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer issued a statement affirming that Ukraine’s western allies “will continue to escalate pressure on Russia, ensure military support for Ukraine remains robust, and further tighten sanctions against Russia.” economy”.

Kremlin pushes for an end to foreign military aid, while Trump faces political dilemmas at home

While Putin may have time in his favor in the short term, he should take this into account. Despite its massive manpower and firepower, Russia would not be able to match Ukraine backed by a coalition like this. Putin’s strategy to involve Trump in the details of a comprehensive agreement might ultimately lead to unintended consequences. To begin with, in-depth discussions will challenge the US president’s well-known short attention span.

However, this will also provide Ukraine and its allies with time to reinforce Kyiv’s stance in upcoming negotiations. It will continue to put pressure on Russia’s economy without causing an immediate collapse. Currently, Trump’s attempts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine have stalled. He is trying to negotiate a multifaceted ceasefire agreement, which includes distinct accords with Kyiv and Moscow, influencing NATO allies, and seeking to create discord between Russia and China. It remains uncertain how this will unfold or conclude. The sole certainty is that they are not advancing towards a just and stable peace for Ukraine.