Credit: Bloomberg via Getty Images, Sergei Bobylev / Sputnik, Kremlin Pool via AP

Putin’s moves complicate Trump’s cease-fire strategy

Statements from the White House and the Kremlin regarding the two-hour phone conversation between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on May 19 indicate that the outcome was poor, and Trump could be reversing some of his harsh words toward Putin.

“Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin negotiations toward a ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the war,”

Trump stated on Truth Social. Since they are the only ones who can know the specifics of a negotiation that no one else would, the terms of that will be bargained between the two sides.

Putin described the discussion as “informative and helpful,” but he also stated that it is necessary to address the “root cause of the issue.” The demilitarization of Ukraine and the departure of Ukrainian troops from Ukrainian land that Russia has “annexed” but does not occupy are among the harsh conditions that Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky just laid out in Istanbul, and Ukraine must accept them. To put it briefly, there has been no progress on putting an end to the conflict since the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine last week in Istanbul.

Regarding Monday’s talk with Putin, Trump stated,

“I think it went very well.”

It’s strange that Trump has described the exchange favorably because last week, when Putin declined to attend the talks he had suggested in Istanbul—talks that Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to attend—Trump rationalized Putin’s irrationality by claiming that, of course, Putin did not attend because he, Trump, was not present.

At the conclusion of the call, however, Trump expressed optimism regarding the restart of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and remained mute regarding the necessity of his meeting with Putin. Given that Putin is still impeding Trump’s declared objective of bringing an early halt to the shooting, this result is hardly shocking. Putin made this clear on Sunday night when he launched the biggest drone strike against Ukraine since the invasion began, using more than two hundred drones.

US Vice President JD Vance and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned in the days before the call that the US may “walk away” from the negotiations if real progress toward peace did not materialize. The parties are being pressured in this way. “The administration is frustrated with both sides, even though, as Vance stated earlier this month, it is Russia that is asking for too much,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said without providing a reason.

In the meantime, Zelenskyy and his European allies in the UK, France, Germany, and other countries are continuing their attempts to impose further sanctions on Moscow; if Trump collaborated with this group, the campaign would be more successful in pushing the Kremlin toward a real cease-fire. Currently, 61 percent of Americans believe that the administration’s stance on Putin is weak, but this opinion is not reflected in White House policy.

It cannot be ruled out that Trump will fulfill his pledge to bring about a lasting peace by applying sufficient pressure on the party preventing that from happening, even though recent White House policy has been hesitant. For the time being, however, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that Trump blinked.

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