The quick fall of Bashar Assad’s control in Syria after the victorious advance of the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) will reshuffle Syria’s ties with its neighbours. HTS controlled Syria’s last major oppositional fort in the country’s northwestern province of Idlib for five years, but as it concentrates on consolidating its powers in the Syrian capital, Damascus, there is much discussion as to whether it will be able to control the whole country, especially as there are a multitude of other rebel parties who will want to share control. 

For years, Assad’s pivotal partners were Russia, Iran, and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. The Arab League, a body of 22 countries had reestablished relations with his government in May 2023 after 12 years of separating him as a consequence of his ruthless suppression of the local population during Syria’s civil battle. Its new leaders will expect to see the lifting of international sanctions, but it remains to be seen which actors, apart from Qatar, might be ready to support them. The HTS group, which was formerly affiliated with the US-designated terror company al-Qaida, was marked a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2018.  

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani recently revealed to US broadcaster CNN that he and other bosses in the group had developed in their outlook and Islamic knowledge with age, claiming that the extreme ideas from their youth had become more sensible over time. The AP news agency noted that he had expressed that HTS would not inflict dress codes on women or meddle with other personal freedoms.

In recent years, the group has demonstrated tolerance towards religious minorities, such as Christians or the Druze residents in areas under its authority. Analysts express that regardless of the regional developments, Syria’s new sovereigns will have to concentrate on political stabilization if they desire to be recognized by Turkey, the European Union, and the United States.

All of these major powers will likely recognize the new [HTS] administration on the condition it forms a moderate government, refrains from opposing the Kurdish YPG, and does not endorse Hezbollah or Hamas. Given their incredible success in overturning Assad so quickly, the opposition is likely to take these conditions in exchange for support and recognition. The nation has little understanding of democratic institutions and confronts a great risk of confusion and even territorial fragmentation. This could be the very basis that this juncture could bring forth the birth of a political settlement.