A mixture of Ukrainian ingenuity and Western-supplied long-range missiles is pushing the Russian occupation of Crimea increasingly untenable. The continued decline of Russia’s position on the Crimean peninsula is a significant blow to Kremlin prestige that also has potentially profound practical implications for the future of the war.
In recent weeks, long-awaited collections of US missiles have permitted Ukraine to step up a movement of air strikes against Russian air defence support and other military targets throughout the occupied peninsula. This follows on from an earlier sequence of drone and missile attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which caused the bulk of Putin’s warships to retreat from Crimea to the comparative safety of Novorossiysk in Russia (and the Caribbean).
Reports of fresh Ukrainian air walkouts on Russian military assets in Crimea are now an almost daily event. On June 10, for example, Ukraine declared to have struck three advanced Russian air defence systems. Additional high-value targets have included Russian airfields, radars, command posts, and communications means. The majority of recent episodes have been possible thanks to the delivery of ATACMS missiles from the US as parts of the military aid bill that was finally enacted by Congress in April following months of delays.
In addition to steadily weakening Russia’s defensive capacities, Ukraine also seems intent on isolating Crimea by targeting the Kremlin’s logistical links to the occupied peninsula. According to Britain’s Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian air strikes in late May injured two rail ferries on the Crimean side of the Kerch Strait, putting them temporarily out of service. This meant a significant blow as Moscow has developed reliant on these ferry services to resupply its troops in Crimea following a series of Ukrainian aggression on the Crimean Bridge connecting the peninsula to Russia.
Ukraine’s recent ferry assistance attack has reportedly forced Russia to resume the transportation of military stores and fuel over the vulnerable Crimean Bridge. Moscow has sought to rescue the bridge from possible invasion by deploying a series of barges in addition to extensive current defences. However, the apparent ease with which Ukraine has been capable of hitting Russian air defences and logistical crossroads throughout Crimea has led some to suggest that the defeat of the Crimean Bridge may now only be a matter of time.
The Kremlin seems to be well aware of this exposure. For the past year, Russian engineers have been making a series of railway lines running from Russia itself via occupied regions of mainland Ukraine along the shore of the Sea of Azov to Crimea. This should allow Moscow to maintain a relationship with the peninsula and supply Russian forces in southern Ukraine, but the new railway routes will also function as key targets for Ukrainian missiles and saboteurs.
It is now obvious that Ukraine’s growing air strike capabilities are putting Russian occupation forces in Crimea in a dangerous position. By utilizing Western-provided cruise missiles and domestically made naval drones, Ukraine has already succeeded in causing most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to shrink from its home port of Sevastopol in Crimea. This has also limited the ability of Russian warships to use in the western Black Sea.
The next stage of this action is now underway, with Ukraine methodically consuming Russian air defences and telling the entire peninsula to further attack. Ukraine is anticipated to receive the first F-16 fighter jets in the coming months, setting the scene for what is likely to be a broader air movement against Russia’s extensive weathering military infrastructure throughout Crimea. With its air defences destroyed and supply lines under threat, the Russian military in Crimea may soon face the realization that its position is no longer sustainable.