It has been a little more than a week since Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky had their infamous argument in the Oval Office and US-Ukrainian ties seemed irretrievably harmed, the two nations have reached a deal. After nine hours of talks in Saudi Arabia, negotiators agreed to a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, permitting the resume of military assistance and intelligence sharing by the US.
There is no guarantee that the guns in the battle will now immediately fall quiet. No ceasefire deal between the warring parties, Russia and Ukraine, has been reached. In particular, it is not even evident how much detail is included in the proposal and how much of it has already been concerned with Russia during earlier discussions between senior US and Russian officials.
From a Ukrainian viewpoint, it has several edges. First, the central split between Ukraine and the US has been somewhat reconciled. The minerals deal has been delay since the White House confrontation. There has been an invitation from Trump to Zelensky to return to the US to sign it. Equally significantly for Ukraine, the restoration of US weapons deliveries to Ukraine and the lifting of the prohibition on intelligence sharing were part of the agreement. This fixes required US battlefield backing for Ukraine, including for Kyiv’s ability to strike targets in-depth inside Russia.
On the other hand, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is now in a somewhat more problematic position. He has to offset his war desires in Ukraine with the arguably more strategically significant goal of restoring relations with the US. Discussions between senior US and Russian officials in the Saudi capital Riyadh, appeared to demonstrate that Moscow had won important concessions from the US, including on keeping illegally occupied territory and no NATO accession for Ukraine.
It is possible that these submissions may still be on the table, alongside other US proposals to normalise ties and end Russia’s seclusion from the west. But this does not imply that Russia will be in any special hurry to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. The country’s economy has survived western sanctions extremely well so far.
Russian president is also likely to be ready on capitalising further on the speed that his soldiers still have on the battlefield inside Ukraine. And he is doubtful to want to set the opportunity to converse regarding a ceasefire, let alone a peace deal, with Zelensky as long as Ukraine still maintains territory in the Kursk area inside Russia. While Ukrainian soldiers have come under growing stress there recently and are at risk of being captured, it is possible to take Russia some more time to move them to withdraw completely or to offer.
Kyiv forces are under tension in the Kursk region. Putin is accordingly likely to fight for more time in an action to push his edge on the ground while dodging upsetting Trump. The deputy leader of the upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council, and head of its international affairs committee, Konstantin Kosachev, made this clear after the US-Ukraine agreement was announced. He demanded that any deals would have to be on Russian, rather than US – let alone Ukrainian – terms. This demonstrates a willingness to discuss, but also signals that an deal, even on a ceasefire, will still need further talks.
