As the European Union’s summit in Brussels on March 6 demonstrated, Europe faces a geopolitical predicament. European countries are getting ready for US security retraction, but each still needs to determine what it must do to fill the gap. This matter is especially critical for Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations, which are nearest to Russian aggression and, to a great extent, most dependent on US assistance at present.
US pursuit of peace discussions with Russia, potentially without much concern for the fairness or longevity of the peace agreement, compounds this tension. The United States’ withdrawal from Europe and US President Donald Trump’s preludes to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This shift in US foreign policy poses destabilizing effects on Europe, Ukraine, and the wider post-Soviet area. Consequently, European nations must reassess their defense strategies; it can no longer be regarded as a mere budgetary consideration but should be prioritized as an essential industrial focus.
The risk of increased fragmentation
Without concerted action, the commitments EU leaders made this month in Brussels will mean little without realizing the bloc’s military ambitions. CEE remains vulnerable to military threats despite NATO membership, with defense capacities insufficient without US backing.
For the CEE nations, the variety of a disengaging United States and an empowered Moscow presents three crucial challenges: diverging strategic orientations, its continued reliance on Russian energy commodities, and the need to update its defenses.
There is still political fragmentation in the region. The Baltic nations and Poland have led a strong reaction to Ukraine’s dilemma since 2022, while the governments of Hungary and Slovakia display strong pro-Russian moods. At the EU summit this month, Hungary was the only country to oppose the security deal, while Slovakia tried to leverage it to continue Russian gas flows. CEE’s insufficient energy transition and Slovakia and Hungary’s unwillingness to free themselves from Moscow’s gas monopoly complicate security measures for the continent.
These disagreements reflect a deepening split in the region’s strategic direction —a division between the pro-European path supported by Poland and the Baltics, with their clear-eyed panorama of Russian revanchism, and components of the pro-Moscow center led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose dictatorial trends and energy dependencies make them convenient bedfellows with the Russia. The price of courting Moscow is democratic backsliding at home and diminished credibility in Brussels.
How CEE can capitalize on the opportunity
There is another way to do it. By strengthening their security, CEE nations can also boost their industrial capabilities and economic competitiveness. In recent decades, several CEE countries have developed robust industrial supply chains with Germany, particularly with the German automotive industry. There is an outsized role that this German-CEE industrial cluster can play in addressing these challenges security challenges, and it also delivers a chance to grow the economies of all the nations involved.
There has already been some progress in this regard. The Polish state-owned PGZ, for example, has partnered with the German company Rheinmetall to manufacture Leopard tanks in Poznań, Poland. Czechoslovak Group has become a crucial supplier of artillery shells to Ukraine, increasing production fivefold since 2022, while Estonia’s Milrem Robotics is developing autonomous border surveillance systems as part of the Baltic Defense Line.
As German car manufacturers and their CEE branches make significant job cuts, the traditional automotive sector could be transformed into advanced production sites for unmanned aerial vehicles and conventional artillery. This might involve either expanding current industries or modifying existing production lines. In some instances, the challenges may be more substantial, necessitating the swift development of advanced capabilities.
The potential for US security withdrawal from Europe requires more than just half-hearted measures and optimistic statements. A US retreat from Europe’s defense would create a gap that only European nations can address. Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries need to manage their divided political stance toward Moscow and shift defense from a mere budget item to an essential industrial focus. As the West’s security framework is being reshaped, Europe’s eastern border is increasingly vulnerable. The critical issue at hand is whether Europe will shape this new architecture or be shaped by it.
